News of Twitter’s demise is premature – but we still need to prepare

There is no denying that Elon Musk’s time in charge of Twitter has been chaotic. But it’s too early for the policy sector to give up on Twitter.

To be fair to him, Musk did announce the colour of his tenure from the outset when he said his intention would be to “move fast and break things”.

It all started with Twitter’s new owner wandering into Twitter’s HQ on 26 October holding a sink – for the sake of a pun – to the bemusement of onlookers.

Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in! pic.twitter.com/D68z4K2wq7

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 26, 2022

The chaos that followed has included mass layoffs – half of Twitter’s 7,500 workforce were laid off in November as well as a further 5,500 contractors. These included senior executives, employees working on moderation and data science, and critically anyone who dared criticise Musk even in private.

From a platform point of view, the layoffs raised concerns among disinformation experts that Twitter’s moderation system had been left “in tatters”. A number of previously banned accounts were reinstated, while journalists criticising Musk’s commitment to free speech were de-platformed and then re-platformed. This was compounded by ill-thought-out decisions on account verification, the Twitter Blue subscription service, and bans on links to other social media sites.

Chaotic yes, but nowhere near death’s door

Given all of this happened over the space of just a few weeks, it is hardly surprising that Twitter had lost half of its top advertisers within the space of a month, and a Twitter poll launched a few weeks later concluded that Musk should step down as CEO. 

Inevitably, as #RIPTwitter trended, commentators and news outlets have been lining up to read out Twitter’s obituary. Here is a sample from the Atlantic, CNBC, The Hill, Vanity Fair, the New York Post, Buzzfeed, Business Insider, Daily Mail, the National, Euronews, Times of India, The Verge, and many more.

Here is why they are wrong.

Being the first to sound Twitter’s death knell makes for a good headline, especially for a media industry which has been obsessed with the platform for 15 years. However, there is undoubtedly a heavy dose of wishful thinking in there among an urban middle class which is suspicious of Musk’s ultra libertarianism. In addition, it fundamentally mis-characterises the value of Twitter.

It is true that although the media would have you believe everyone in the country is hooked on Twitter, the platform has never come close to the kind of reach that Facebook has achieved. While Facebook attracted 2.98 billion monthly users in January according to Statista, Twitter attracted a ‘mere’ 556 million. In the US, 74.2% of the population are Facebook users, compared to 41.8% for Twitter. In the UK, it’s 73.5% for Facebook to 45.1% for Twitter.

But the story doesn’t end there. While Facebook is a platform for the ‘common’ user, Twitter is skewed towards profile and influence. Politicians, journalists, commentators, business leaders, media, celebrities – if you are an influencer, a Twitter presence is a must-have.

Why? Because Twitter derives its power from the news – and the news dictates how relevant you are. And for an influencer, relevance is everything.

The reasons Twitter became popular in the first place still apply

From the outset, the platform was tailor-made for commenting on current affairs. The platform was ridiculously simple to use, like sending an SMS. The feed – which originally was chronological – meant the latest news was easy to find (hashtags were created by the Twitter community as a device to help them search). 

The character limit meant users were encouraged to post in short bursts and react in real time, which made the conversation dynamic. Text-only tweets allowed journalists to break news, politicians to comment in real time, and guests to live-tweet. Threads allowed policy wonks to convey more complex messages. And the simple interface made it more likely a politician would tweet themselves.

Layered over this, the open and public-by-default nature of connections, content and interactions made the platform ideal for engagement by and with public figures. Being able to follow people without them having to follow you back. Being able to comment on their content and share it in real time. For influencers, being able to seamlessly connect and engage with other influencers.

Celebrities saw the appeal early on. But the big breakthrough for journalists came when Captain Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger III crash-landed US Airways Flight 1549 on the Hudson in 2009 – an event which came to be known as the ‘Miracle on the Hudson’. For the first time, the news was broken to the masses on Twitter in real time, rather than through traditional media.

US Airways Flight 1549 (N106US) after crashing into the Hudson River. Credit: Greg L. Photo licensed under Creative Commons.

CNN, among others, recognised this at the time as the seminal moment that it was. And thus Twitter became embedded in the media ecosystem. Today, Twitter is by far the social media platform most used by journalists.

Inevitably, politicians soon followed journalists onto the platform. As did business leaders. Commentators. And then policy influencers and other types of experts. 

Today, anyone seeking to set, shape or follow the agenda in current affairs is present on Twitter. And in spite of Musk’s tinkering with the platform, it is not immediately clear why that would change. Policy influencers and organisations have invested time and effort to build up a following – they will not readily give that away and start again.

What it would take for Twitter to “die”

While possible, Twitter’s sudden death is unlikely. It would take either a catastrophic technical collapse of the platform, or a catastrophic financial collapse. 

More likely, if it were to die, it would be a slow process. Perhaps it would involve users gradually deserting the platform as it rolled back the features that made it popular in the first place. Perhaps it would involve the culture of the platform becoming less inclusive, more politicised, more toxic.

For now though, the real-time functionality remains a key technical feature. Meanwhile, the culture of the platform is hotly debated – and will remain so – with some arguing that the scaled-down moderation and reinstatement of banned accounts has made the platform more hateful; while others have argued that these same measures represent a victory for free speech.   

Either way, policy influencers still have a need to connect and engage in real time. And if they were to leave Twitter in droves, I would expect them to leave for a clear alternative platform which offered similar real-time features as Twitter. Right now, this does not exist.

Planning for the future

The fact that Twitter is unlikely to disappear in the short-to-medium term does not mean we can rest on our laurels. Quite the opposite – as strategists, we should be using this time to prepare.

Here are three key recommendations:

1. Be cautious about spending on Twitter.

The Twitter Blue subscription service is shaping up to be a disaster – the very principle of paying for verification has completely devalued the product itself (verification). Ticks have become meaningless, the subscription is not a good use of your money. In addition, be tentative with your advertising spend – pause any big advertising campaigns and sense-check whether Twitter is still the best platform to reach your audiences.

2. Use this time to familiarise yourselves with new platforms.

There may come a time when alternative platforms become viable – some are not that far off. Use this transition time to explore and test new platforms, informally. Start to form an opinion of what your needs are as an organisation or as individuals, and how each platform might meet them. Since the social side of social media is so important, why not create a future-looking digital working group, to test new platforms? Also, why not read my follow-up piece in which I assess each of the platforms which have been touted as the “alternative to Twitter”?

3. Keep your ear close to the ground.

Ultimately, whether an alternative to Twitter emerges will be decided by people voting with their feet. Regularly check in about whether any new platforms are starting to emerge in the sector. But don’t get distracted by consumer trends – as policy communicators, we are not interested in the latest platforms being used by young people. We are interested in platforms our stakeholders are using: in particular, policy-makers, politicians, academics, peers. And even more so than any of these, journalists. They are the canaries in the mine. If they get interested in a new platform, so will politicians, policy-makers, funders… and eventually, you!

Next time…

In my next article, I explore all the alternatives to Twitter which have been put forward to date, and offer my assessment on each of them – along with thoughts on how to plan for the future.